Punggol East By-election: The other side of the equation

So much has been said about the impending Punggol East SMC by-election – while most concede that PAP is likely to win in a multi-cornered fight, opinions are split on whether the decision of opposition parties other than the Workers’ Party (WP) to run in the election is justified or not (see for instance this and this).

In contrast to the multitudinous write-ups focusing on the opposition parties, few analyses center on the electorate of the Punggol East SMC. The first to do so is our dear Straits Times, which, in its eagerness to ass-kiss the PAP, has landed itself in hot soup by publishing a report with the headline “ST poll: More rooting for PAP” and breaching the Parliamentary Elections Act (see 78C).

ST editor Warren Fernandez then tried to wriggle his way out of the mess by claiming that the ST poll is neither “full-scale” nor “scientific.” Good try Warren. But hey, the methodology of the poll is beside the question. As long as the survey asks about voter preference as the ST poll clearly did, it is an “election survey” as defined in the Elections Act. Calling it a “straw poll” will not absolve ST of its blame.

After the ST blunder, The Online Citizen, Yahoo News and Today each spoke with Punggol East residents about the issues that concern them. Today reports, “Almost half of the Punggol East residents who were interviewed (48) said that municipal issues will be key in the by-election…In comparison, one in five felt that national issues – such as cost of living and the argument for alternative voices in Parliament – were more important, while one in four said it will be a mix of both.”

The overwhelming impression is that local or municipal issues top the list of the residents’ concerns. But is it really so? In the absence of a randomly-sampled election survey, what do we know about the Punggol East voter and his/her preferences?

The Punggol East Electorate

Well, we do have some information on the profile of the Punggol East residents and a post-election survey 2011 (sample size 2,000) conducted by the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) that sheds light on some prominent national trends.

Juxtaposing the two, we can see that the demographics of Punggol East work to the advantage of the opposition parties.

In Punggol East, we have an electorate that is younger and better-off. Only 24% of residents are above 50 years old, 5% lower than the national average of 29%. This means that 76% of residents are below 50 years old.

On top of being younger, the average Punggol East resident is also better-off, as reflected by the housing type in the Single Member Constituency (SMC). Sixty percent of residents live in 5-room flats, executive flats and private housing. The remaining 40% reside in 4-room flats (source). There are no three-room flats in the SMC.

Since housing type and affordability are tied to occupation and income level, we may also infer that the residents in Punggol East are of a higher socio-economic status. Going by the IPS classification, we may infer that Punggol East residents are predominantly of the “service class” (senior executives, professionals, technicians and supervisors), and of the “intermediate class” (clerical and service workers) instead of the “working class” (operators, semi-skilled and unskilled workers).

Now based on its poll mentioned earlier, ST asserts that “The edge that the ruling party appears to hold [in the Punggol East SMC] may be a reflection of the incumbency advantage it has always held in a middle class, traditionally PAP-leading ward.”

Even if we give credence to the ST poll, it is an overstatement to claim that PAP always has an edge in a middle class ward. There are a few reasons why I say so, based on the nation-wide trends unveiled in the IPS survey of around 2,000 respondents.

IPS Survey Findings and Implications

1. The higher the socio-economic status, the more “pluralist” the voter (simply speaking, a pluralist believes that there should be no monopoly of political power) (pp. 44, 49).

2. WP is most credible in the eyes of the service class and the most highly educated whereas PAP is most credible with respondents beyond 40 years old and the working class (p. 36).

3. The high cost of living increasingly bugs the service class; the foreigner and immigration issue is especially important to the younger and better-off (pp. 56, 58).

4. Internet has become more important as a communication channel for the younger and higher socio-economic group (p. 57).

5. On candidates’ characteristics, “credentials, grassroots experience and party” are less important than “honesty, efficiency, fairness and empathy” in 2006 and 2011 (p. 22).

Given that Punggol East residents are younger and of a higher socio-economic status, we may infer that they are more pluralist and more likely to find WP credible. There is also a greater chance that the voting preference of Punggol East residents will be shaped by the Internet. That residents, despite their higher socio-economic status, are unhappy about the rising cost of living and the foreigner influx, is also advantageous to the opposition parties. Ditto the declining influence of a candidate’s credentials on voters’ choice.

Swing Voters

Source: IPS survey, p.50

As we can see from the table above, swing voters make up the bulk of the voters classified by housing type. They also constitute the bulk of voters classified by occupation class. Therefore the voting outcome largely hinges upon the swing voters and ultimately how the candidates court their votes.

In GE 2011, PAP candidate Palmer, WP candidate Lee Li Lian and SDA candidate Desmond Lim garnered 54.5% , 41% and 4.5% share of votes respectively (source).

Given the demographics of the Punggol East SMC, the percentage of hardcore PAP supporters is likely to be lower than the national average. Going one step further and taking into consideration the national and local issues, we may conjecture that PAP’s vote share is unlikely to be higher than 54% in this by-election.

The burning questions are thus: How much lower will PAP vote share go? And to which opposition candidate will the former PAP votes be channeled to? Are the 41% that voted for Lee Li Lian in GE 2011 hardcore WP supporters?

Now with SDP, the second most credible contender of the opposition camp, out of the race, will opposition supporters channel their votes to WP, leaving other opposition party candidates high and dry?

And how will the most prominent national versus local issues play off against each other? Namely, Punggol East being a young estate, are neighborhood facilities more important for the voter? Or will the relentless rise in cost of living (property prices, COE prices, stagnant wages) push voters towards the opposition camp

SDP efforts in Punggol East

By: Clarence Zeng, member of the Young Democrats and Deputy Head of the SDP's Ground Operations Unit.

It was a hard, and heavy decision that was made known to the members that we were pulling out of the race in the Punggol East by-election.

We had just concluded yet another night of house visits which ended on a high note. When it finally dawned on us that we had to withdraw from this by-election, my heart sank.

I started to think about the feelings of our members and volunteers who had been so committed to doing the groundwork. Many had applied for leave once the writ of the by-election was announced – not just one day, but a whole stretch. Some who had arranged to travel overseas, threw away their air tickets.

These members and volunteers, who sacrificed their sweat and toil to commit to the campaign hustings, how would they feel? Would they feel that their efforts would have been for nothing?

No doubt, there is more than a tinge of disappointment for me. We had a strong candidate, backed up by viable alternative policies, and people who are ready to work on the ground. But if there is any emotion that resonates stronger within me right now, it would be pride.

Pride because we visited at least 10,000 households in Punggol East SMC in the past nine days, a schedule we had originally planned to complete in two months.

Pride that we were able to mobilise more than a dozen members each day, committing up to eight hours of physical work. More than 50 members showed up on short notice in our first walkabout.

Pride that we visited every household with a smile, and painstakingly explained our party's ideological stand and policies in the various languages and dialects.

It was the start of a ground campaign that showed the conviction of the Singapore Democrats in this electoral contest, a ground campaign that answered our critics who say that we are a party that is all talk and no action.

To these members and volunteers, I thank you, and I'm proud of what you have done. Our efforts have definitely not gone to waste, having enlightened our fellow Singaporeans in Punggol East that Singapore can have an alternative future led by a party that is Competent, Constructive, and Compassionate.

4 Parties to contest in Punggol East By Election

It's confirmed. 4 Parties to contest in Punggol East By Election. Let's make sure the PAP will not win this BE. Another Opposition Member in Parliament is good for the nation. We must continue to exert pressure on the ruling party so that they will stop being arrogant and complacent and always put Singaporeans first.

Punggol East will see a four-cornered battle in the by-election called when former MP and House Speaker Michael Palmer stepped down following his admission of an extramarital affair.

The WP candidate Lee Li Lian is up against three other candidates: Dr Koh Poh Koon of the PAP, Mr Kenneth Jeyaretnam of the Reform Party and Mr Desmond Lim of the Singapore Democratic Alliance.

Let us reaffirm our support for SDP

by Ng E-Jay

I am glad the Singapore Democratic Party (SDP) has withdrawn from the Punggol East by-election. I am very sure that it was by no means an easy decision. The party had been walking the ground everyday since it announced its intention to contest. All of its resources were ready and its manpower was fully galvanized.

The SDP chose to withdraw because it heeded the voices of the people. That is a sign of true humility. The SDP has portrayed itself as a party that is willing to listen to the people, able to change at a moment’s notice in response to what the people want.

There will always be other opportunities and other means to build up the SDP. What is one by-election in the grand scheme of things?

Last night, I was browsing through Democratically Speaking, Dr Chee’s latest book. All the court cases fought, all the protests made on behalf of our civil liberties, all the policy papers written, all the engagements made against the ruling PAP, struck a chord within me. The SDP has come a very, very long way. One by-election is just a little speed-bump in this long journey to a more democratic Singapore.

Indeed, electoral participation itself is simply a part of democratic participation, albeit an extremely important one. A political party should not merely contest in elections. It should develop ideas and build dreams for a better tomorrow.
If there is one good thing coming out of all this, it is that SDP has shown that it respects the voices of the people even as it tries to take the helm in providing the leadership that points to a better future.

What can be more comforting, what can be more reassuring, than to have a party tell you that your voice matters, that your opinions will not fall on deaf ears, that they will be acted upon if they are fair, just and reasonable?

Growing up in authoritarian Singapore and feeling that no one cares about you and your thoughts and feelings, that one statement by SDP touched me today.

Let us reaffirm our support for SDP, and for a more democratic Singapore.

*Article first appeared on http://www.sgpolitics.net/

PAP candidate Koh Poh Koon is a ‘nobody’?

The People’s Action Party’s (PAP) candidate for Punggol East SMC, colorectal surgeon Koh Poh Koon is a ‘nobody’, according to an article on SingaPolitics.

The colorectal surgeon reportedly joined the PAP only 3 weeks ago and even grassroot leaders were not familiar with him at all.

Dr Koh, who joined the party only three weeks ago, is an unknown to the PAP rank-and-file. Some senior party cadres in Telok Blangah, where he lives and volunteers with the residents’ committee, have never even met him. 

He is not a particularly prominent nor active grassroots leader, was not involved in 2011’s General Election, and prior to his entry into politics this week, had next to no ground experience.

However, Deputy Prime Minister (DPM) Teo Chee Hean explained that Dr Koh was in the pipeline to be fielded in the next General Election (to be held by 2016), but the resignation of Michael Palmer accelerated his ascension.

The compressed timeline has robbed Dr Koh of time to familiarise himself with party activists, said DPM Teo, but on all other fronts, he is the sort of well-credentialled and committed candidate that the PAP, with a few notable exceptions, usually fields.

So is Dr Koh really a ‘nobody’? Obviously not.

Apparently Dr Koh is an extremely busy and “well-credentialled” man, according to information TR Emeritus received from its readers.

1 ) Director & Consultant Surgeon, Capstone Colorectal Surgery Centre.
2 ) Adjunct Assistant Professor, DUKE-NUS Graduate Medical School, Singapore.
3 ) Consultant Surgeon, Department of Colorectal Surgery, Singapore General Hospital (SGH).
4 ) Visiting Consultant, Department of General Surgery, Changi General Hospital.
5 ) Acting Director, Colorectal Cancer Molecular Genetics Research Laboratory, SGH.
6 ) Acting Director, Colorectal Cancer Genomic Health Service, SGH.
7 ) Clinical Lecturer, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore (NUS).
8 ) Co-Supervisor (PhD Program), Department of Pharmacy, Faculty of Science, NUS.
9 ) Adjunct Clinician Scientist, Institute of Bioengineering & Nanotechnology (IBN), A*Star.
10 ) Active in clinical and molecular research and has published widely in both clinical and basic science peer-reviewed journals.
11 ) Reviewer for the Journal of Cancer Research and Therapeutics as well as Diseases of the Colon and Rectum.
12 ) Reviewer for the SGH Research Grant.
13 ) Ad-hoc grant reviewer for the NMRC (National Medical Research Council) Grant.
14 ) Committee Member of the Gastroenterological Society of Singapore (GESS).
15 ) Council Member of the International Council of Coloproctology.
16 ) Member of the American Society of Colon and Rectal Surgeons (ASCRS).
17 ) Commanding Officer (CO) of a Combat Service Support Battalion (CSSB).
18 ) Committee Member in the SingHealth Sub-committee on Leadership and Succession Planning.
19 ) Executive Committee Member at the Telok Blangah Dover Crescent Resident’s Committee since 2002.
20 ) Member of the Community Emergency Response Team (CERT).
21 ) Assistant Liaison Officer (Singapore Police Force) for Telok Blangah Dover Crescent Neighborhood Watch Zone since 2002.

As above, Dr Koh who claims to be from a humble family certainly is not short of ‘humble credentials’ to boast of. Common Singaporeans would take years just to have 1/4 of his above ‘humble credentials’ added to their name.

‘Humble credentials’ aside, the main question voters in Punggol east SMC would probably be asking is:

With all the above appointments, does he have time for the residents should he be elected?

What do you think?

Who to vote for in Punggol East By-Election?

Punggol East residents: scrutinize the records of each candidate and see clearly who can understand your concerns better?

The highly paid doctor who keeps harping on the times gone-by when meritocracy was a straightforward system and threatens you if you don't vote the PAP?

Or the lady with a humble job and lives like all of us and has shown her commitment by joining her Party in 2006?

Source: The Alternative View

SDP withdraws from Punggol East by-election

A message from Singapore Democrats:

We had decided to contest the by-election in Punggol East because of the following factors:

(1) A set of alternative policies that we wanted to present to the voters.

(2) A candidate who would have a strong chance of defeating the PAP candidate.

(3) A well-organised party machinery to run a highly effective campaign.

However, we have decided to withdraw from the race. Singaporeans have signaled clearly that they do not want to see a three-cornered contest in Punggol East which may dilute the vote and allow a PAP win. We hear their voices and we have heeded them.

In politics, it is equally important to listen as it is to speak. We note the genuine concern that the PAP may get returned if there is a split in the opposition's support between the SDP and WP. For this reason, we are stepping aside.